When I was a kid, we would visit my mother's family in Elletsville, Indiana. I remember it like it was yesterday. Most of mom's family never left the town, and many of the people in the town were poor people, working at the local stone mill. They called themselves stone cutters. In the early sixties, many of these families, 3 and 4 generations deep, would all live under one roof. And to their credit and liking, they never had to deal with long hours at the job, high stress, long commutes and fractured families. This made for a very peaceful and tranquil existence. As an adult, that memory has never left me and I find myself envying that lifestyle and way of life. Maybe that is why my all-time favorite TV show is the Andy Griffith Show. I have always tried to fit into that peaceful existence as an adult, a quasi Nirvana that I have never quite attained. I still find myself periodically waking up from that same dream, finding myself living and working in Elletsville, peaceful and happy.As we fast forward to the present, we Americans feel a change coming to our way of life. The confusion and fear we have all felt since the onslaught of the Great Recession has made us realize that the American dream and comfort we have enjoyed may be coming to an end. If that is so, how will that affect the future American family? Could it be that the combination of an economic downfall and the possibility of much longer life spans lead to a reuniting of the family unit? I believe that may well be the case .What will the family living situation look like at that point? I hazard a guess of what issues we face and what it will look like. Here are 3 things I see that will contribute to families moving in together over the next 50 years.First, I foresee that the average life span will be 100 years or longer, not 74 to 77 as it is right now. Remember in 1900 the average life span of a man was only 49 years. When Social Security was first passed on 1% of the U.S. population lived past 65 years old. A recent article in the British newspaper, the Guardian, stated that the lifespan increases 73 days each year in Briton. All we need is one major breakthrough on the cure for cancer or heart disease and we would see life spans increase dramatically. I believe one or both of those breakthroughs will happen in the next 40 to 50 years, along with many other major advancements in medical science.Secondly, I see a long progression of diminished income and wealth for Americans over the n ext half century. The mechanism is already in place as we speak. In the last 10 years we have seen the number of manufacturing jobs go from 17.1 million to 11.6 million, a drop of 5.5 million manufacturing jobs in America. In the automobile industry, in the last 10 years, we have seen the number of automobiles made in the U.S. go from 11.4 million (20.3% of all automobiles made) to 5.7 million (9.2% of all automobiles made). As a child the joke was that everything we bought off of the store shelf was made in Japan. Now everything is made in China, a new manufacturer that was still in isolation and total Communist control just over 20 years ago (remember Tiananmen Square). Two others to join that group are South Korea and India. Separately, the aging of Americans and the stress of huge government debt will limit Social Security and Medicare for many years to come.Lastly, I believe the culture will be forced to change back to the way it was in a similar time 100 years ago in America. Because of the increased longevity of all Americans 40 to 50 years from now, there will be 5 and 6 generations of the same family alive at the same time. The increased life span and poor economic realities will force family members to live together and pool their finances to help all family members survive. This is not as far fetched as it may sound. Before the Social Security Act of 1935 was passed, families took care of families. This will be the norm again and may last into the indefinite future.The takeaway from this article is to get real friendly and close to your family members again because they may be your house guest (or you their house guest) in the not too distant future.
Monday, 10 September 2012
The Extended Family: 5 or 6 Layers Deep
When I was a kid, we would visit my mother's family in Elletsville, Indiana. I remember it like it was yesterday. Most of mom's family never left the town, and many of the people in the town were poor people, working at the local stone mill. They called themselves stone cutters. In the early sixties, many of these families, 3 and 4 generations deep, would all live under one roof. And to their credit and liking, they never had to deal with long hours at the job, high stress, long commutes and fractured families. This made for a very peaceful and tranquil existence. As an adult, that memory has never left me and I find myself envying that lifestyle and way of life. Maybe that is why my all-time favorite TV show is the Andy Griffith Show. I have always tried to fit into that peaceful existence as an adult, a quasi Nirvana that I have never quite attained. I still find myself periodically waking up from that same dream, finding myself living and working in Elletsville, peaceful and happy.As we fast forward to the present, we Americans feel a change coming to our way of life. The confusion and fear we have all felt since the onslaught of the Great Recession has made us realize that the American dream and comfort we have enjoyed may be coming to an end. If that is so, how will that affect the future American family? Could it be that the combination of an economic downfall and the possibility of much longer life spans lead to a reuniting of the family unit? I believe that may well be the case .What will the family living situation look like at that point? I hazard a guess of what issues we face and what it will look like. Here are 3 things I see that will contribute to families moving in together over the next 50 years.First, I foresee that the average life span will be 100 years or longer, not 74 to 77 as it is right now. Remember in 1900 the average life span of a man was only 49 years. When Social Security was first passed on 1% of the U.S. population lived past 65 years old. A recent article in the British newspaper, the Guardian, stated that the lifespan increases 73 days each year in Briton. All we need is one major breakthrough on the cure for cancer or heart disease and we would see life spans increase dramatically. I believe one or both of those breakthroughs will happen in the next 40 to 50 years, along with many other major advancements in medical science.Secondly, I see a long progression of diminished income and wealth for Americans over the n ext half century. The mechanism is already in place as we speak. In the last 10 years we have seen the number of manufacturing jobs go from 17.1 million to 11.6 million, a drop of 5.5 million manufacturing jobs in America. In the automobile industry, in the last 10 years, we have seen the number of automobiles made in the U.S. go from 11.4 million (20.3% of all automobiles made) to 5.7 million (9.2% of all automobiles made). As a child the joke was that everything we bought off of the store shelf was made in Japan. Now everything is made in China, a new manufacturer that was still in isolation and total Communist control just over 20 years ago (remember Tiananmen Square). Two others to join that group are South Korea and India. Separately, the aging of Americans and the stress of huge government debt will limit Social Security and Medicare for many years to come.Lastly, I believe the culture will be forced to change back to the way it was in a similar time 100 years ago in America. Because of the increased longevity of all Americans 40 to 50 years from now, there will be 5 and 6 generations of the same family alive at the same time. The increased life span and poor economic realities will force family members to live together and pool their finances to help all family members survive. This is not as far fetched as it may sound. Before the Social Security Act of 1935 was passed, families took care of families. This will be the norm again and may last into the indefinite future.The takeaway from this article is to get real friendly and close to your family members again because they may be your house guest (or you their house guest) in the not too distant future.
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